Zitat – FT.COM Global Economy, 31.July 2009
When China tells its banks to lend, they do. Now Beijing wants its citizens to breed as well. China is mulling over a partial roll-back of its one-child policy as concerns about its ageing workforce top yesteryear’s doom-laden Malthusian fears. Several other Asian governments also want their citizens to go forth and multiply. Lex chart: Dependency ratio’s
In Japan, where the total fertility rate is 1.37 children per woman, well below replacement levels, increasing childcare benefits is a key issue in this month’s election campaign. The inclination to breed is even lower in Korea and Hong Kong. There TFRs are running at just over one child per woman, according to the United Nations.
China’s one-child policy, although pervasive enough to create the so-called little emperor syndrome, was never quite that. There is a list of exemptions, including ethnic minorities. In cities, officials often turned a blind eye to two-child families, or fines were paid instead. Indeed China’s TFR, at 1.77, is higher than in Germany or Italy.
Still, moves by Shanghai to reverse course and actively promote two-child families among eligible couples marks an inflexion point. It implies an awareness about the need to reduce the number of pensioners relative to taxpayers.
For the moment China is enjoying a demographic sweet spot, as research house GaveKal notes. The country’s dependency ratio, the proportion of children and retirees to working population, is about 40 per cent. But this will rise to nearly 60 per cent by 2040, comparable with Europe and the US. The big question is whether China will get rich before it gets old. So far Beijing has been able to boost economic productivity via the mass migration of farmers to urban coastal areas. That cannot continue indefinitely. Making more babies would certainly help. Whether officials can persuade Shanghai’s women to lie back and think of China is another matter.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Opinion: Beijing’s peculiar definition of state secrets – Jul-23
Blog: Dragonbeat – Jul-21
How to forge a cultural resolution with China – Jul-13
China to deploy foreign reserves – Jul-21
China on track to meet GDP targets – Jul-16
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